OPENING THOUGHTS
- This is one of those weeks that I wish I still lived in Morgantown – place is about to be LIVE this week.
- All-time series sits at 49-9-2 in favor of the bad guys… only 2 wins for the Old Gold and Blue since 1956?!? We’re super due.
- Easily the biggest home opener since #1 Ohio State rolled into town in 1998.
- Big Game James. I listened to all 40 minutes of James Franklin’s press conference earlier this week. Dude is the “ACKSHUALLY” meme incarnate and told a two-minute story as a way to tell a guy who was coughing that he should leave the presser, but overall I was impressed with most of his answers and he was very complimentary of West Virginia as a program and fan base. 3.5 out of 5 stars.
- After spending way too much time on Twitter and Penn State message boards over the past few weeks, I can definitively say that there’s not much that grinds my gears more than a fan base that carries itself like blue blood when in fact they’re a second tier program in their own conference. Idk if we’re the team to shut them up, but it would be absolutely delicious if we did.
- Ultimately, our goal is the Big 12 and win or lose we shouldn’t let week 1 define us, but this is definitely a measuring stick game. A competitive loss or win will provide a boost not only internally in terms of confidence that this team can achieve what it thinks it can, but also nationally in terms of perception and garnering respect that folks seem hesitant to give despite our strong finish in 2023.
WHEN AND WHERE
Time: 12pm EST
Place: Mountaineer Field at Milan-Puskar Stadium - Morgantown, WV
TV: FOX – Big Noon Kickoff
Radio: Mountaineer Sports Network from IMG (Radio Affiliates) | WVU Gameday App (Apple | Android). We will also include the stream in our game thread, which will go live at Noon ET.
SiriusXM Satellite Radio will also have the national broadcast of the game on SiriusXM Channel 80 and streaming online.
Weather: Possibly sh*tty, stay tuned throughout the week.
DEGENERATION STATION
Spread: WVU +8.5
ML: WVU +255
O/U: 51.5
Meme stonks: WVU 2+ touchdowns +1100
WHEN THEY HAVE THE BALL
Notable Numbers
- Penn State ranked 12th nationally with 36 PPG but was middle of the road in YPG (399, 55th) and YPP (5.6, 75th). The benefactors of a defense that gave them the 5th best average starting field position.
- Drew Allar’s 1% TWP rate ranked 4th among 174 FBS QBs with at least 100 dropbacks last year. His ADOT (8.0), BTT% (3.3%), and YPA (6.6) all ranked 125th or worse among the same group. Allar’s inability to consistently push the ball downfield defined this offense last year.
Jimmies and Joes
- QB Drew Allar – he was a high floor, low ceiling guy last year, but has enough mobility to be an issue in new OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense.
- RBs Nic Singleton OR Kaytron Allen – both excellent as freshmen in 2022, both slightly worse last year as sophom*ores, but still two very good backs.
- WRs Julian Fleming OR Omari Evans, Liam Clifford, Harrison Wallace (fans mildly concerned) – the pedigree is certainly there to talk yourself into this being fine if you’re a Penn State fan, but none of these guys have been high performers or producers to this point in their careers.
- TE Tyler Warren – a very good player, expect him to be a problem this weekend.
- OL is replacing three NFL draft picks (fans acknowledge turnover) - should be slightly worse than they were a year ago.
- Freshmen TE Luke Reynolds and IOL Cooper Cousins are both going to play, but they seem especially high on Cousins.
X’s and O’s
The first thing we have to talk about here is the addition of Kotenicki, who Mountaineer fans should be familiar with from his work at Kansas over the past few years. Simply put, I think he’s an excellent OC who will do a much better job than Mike Yurcich of scheming guys open and putting them in positions to be successful. The Penn State offense was pretty mid last year and didn’t really add anything splashy in the offseason, but Kotelnicki’s talent as a play caller offers them a direct path to improvement.
A quick point of emphasis here – early game adjustments will be critical! How often are they using 12 personnel? 20/21 personnel? They have the talent to do both. We have plenty of tape on Kotelnicki at this point, but it’ll look different with Allar than it did with Bean/Daniels and we can’t wait until half time to adjust should they “do some things we don’t expect”. SPOILER ALERT: THEY WILL!
First and foremost, I think our goal has to be stopping the run. Kansas ran the ball more often than Penn State did last year (62% overall, 67% on early downs), and considering their talent at running back I think we have to expect a healthy dose of it Saturday. Kotelnicki loves wide zone and the play action packages off of it (almost 50% PA last year at Kansas), and if we let that be a thing then this probably won’t be all that much more competitive than it was last year. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of early deep shots in an effort to put last year’s “they can’t throw deep” criticisms behind them. Forcing incompletions or even a turnover could get Allar into his own head a bit.
I feel cautiously optimistic that our front 6 can have success against their rebuilt offensive line, but we can’t let anything cheap get out the back end. Neal ran another physical camp after last year’s paid dividends in the tackling department, so hopefully that plan bears fruit again in week 1. We have to stack these guys up on the ground and see if Allar can replicate last year’s success through the air.
WHEN WE HAVE THE BALL
Notable Numbers
- This defense created an insane amount of havoc under Manny Diaz last year – they were absolutely elite at generating pressures (243, 18.7/g), sacks (49, 3.8/g, both 1st FBS; 12% sack rate lapped the field), TFLs (111, 8.6/g, both 2nd FBS), and turnovers (24, 13th FBS).
- We were one of only three teams that ran for 100+ yards on them and gained 300+ overall. AND IT WASN’T EVEN OUR FINAL FORM!
- Simply put, their entire two deep is legitimately good. They have more dudes back who PFF graded over 80 last year than we do guys over 70, and 13 of 17 returnees who played 100+ snaps last year graded out 70+.
Jimmies and Joes
- EDGEs Abdul Carter, Dani Denis-Sutton, Amin Vanover, Zuriah Fisher – four really good ones, but seems like Fisher may be out this weekend?
- IDL Zane Durant, Dvon J-Thomas, Hakeem Beamon, Coziah Izzard – four really good ones.
- LBs Dom DeLuca, Kobe King, Toni Rojas – three really good ones.
- S KJ Winston, Jaylen Reed, Zakee Wheatley – latter is good, first two are elite, especially Winston against the run.
- CBs Cam Miller OR AJ Harris, Audavion Collins OR Jalen Timber – Cam Miller is the only returning contributor here, but the transfers Harris and Timber are both high-pedigree dudes.
- Freshman DE Max Granville has flashed in fall, S Dejuan Lane “green lit” to play.
- On paper they’re maybe a shade off the pace they set the last few years, but this should still be the best unit we’ll face this year by some distance.
X’s and O’s
First things first - new coordinators on both sides! And as objectively as I see Kotelnicki as an upgrade, I think new DC Tom Allen has to be seen as at least a slight downgrade from Manny Diaz. It’s not like Penn State poached him from Indiana, dude was fired after 3 straight losing seasons. Digging into the numbers a bit, I’m not sure I agree with the “defensive guy” reputation – Indiana’s defense was aggressively below average last year (87th in both yards per game and yards per play and 101st in scoring), and that wasn’t exactly a one-year trend. Going back through his tenure, Indiana ranked outside of the top 60 in beta-rank Dscore (SoS-adjusted) in 5 of Allen’s 7 years in charge, and the numbers contrast so starkly to what Penn State has become accustomed to that not even his coaching bio (read: Penn State propaganda) tried to spin many positives.
This leads us into our first question – does Allen plagiarize Diaz’s aggressive 4-3, or does he ask his players to adapt to his more conservative 4-2-5? Penn State obviously has the personnel to do both, so it’ll be interesting to see how Allen deploys the chess pieces.
One thing we can be certain of regardless of personnel is that they’re going to stack the box and see if Greene can beat them with his arm. He was unable to do that last year, but we objectively weren’t what we eventually became in Happy Valley last year, as evidenced by our attempting only four 20+ yard passes and six 10-19 yarders vs Penn State (14% and 22%, respectively) compared to 25.6% and 28.7% on the year. How respectful are we there this year? Neal straight up said we’re going to throw it early and loaded boxes mean there are going to be opportunities for explosives in the passing game against their new cornerback rotation – are we able to win those matchups and deliver the ball accurately when those situations arise?
Overall, there isn’t anywhere where we have a pure talent advantage against this defense, which places the emphasis on creativity and execution to stay on schedule. We need to pass it well enough to keep them honest and run it well enough to keep 3rd downs manageable and chains moving. 3rd and longs just aren’t a recipe for success against this defense – the pass rushers are too dangerous when they can pin their ears back and attack.
X-FACTOR(S)
All the usual margins-related stuff innit – turnover, field position, 3rd downs, RZ efficiency, penalties, etc, but if we’re looking for something outside of the obvious then I think a sneaky one is don’t let Drew Allar get hot early. I still think back to last year and how differently that game might go if Aubrey Burks makes the interception on the long TD on their opening drive. Everything you read about Allar indicates that he’s not an alpha dog, and that mostly backs up what I’ve seen on the field. His 2023 performance received mixed reviews (generally good, but couldn’t make the big plays when it mattered) and he’s had all summer to reflect on that, and if we force him into some bad decisions early I think some of those negative headlines might create a bit of a deer-in-the-headlights situation.
PREDICTION
Last year in Happy Valley was a little too big for us, but I don’t expect that to be the case this year at home. We’ve proven, most importantly to ourselves, that we can do things well and can play and win tough games. We’re not hoping for this or being optimistic about that anymore – this team knows that it has some dudes who can do things on both sides of the ball. Penn State are favorites for a reason, but there are a couple of factors that I think see us in with a shout.
First, the atmosphere. This one is big. Our biggest home opener in almost 30 years, against a top 10 historical rival that has generally owned us. Morgantown is gonna be lit. Full stop. I think this team is going to come out and feed off that energy in a positive way after feeling like they didn’t put their best foot forward in Happy Valley last year. Either way, I think we can count on Mountaineer Nation to win the parking lot (we always do) and carry that momentum into the stadium, and if the team keeps it close down the stretch, we will absolutely be there to help them across the line.
Second, while Penn State objectively holds most of the advantages on the field, they’re not without question marks. Is Kotelnicki able to unlock Allar and the passing game, or is it again the thing that puts a hard cap on their offense? Do the new starters on the offensive line have enough of a grasp on their new scheme to prevent any week 1 drop-off from a group that sent three starters to the NFL, or does the lack of cohesion field a group that we can take advantage of early in the game? Ditto for the new starters at corner.
Overall, I’ve come away from all this homework having talked myself into the idea that they're maybe a shade worse than they were a year ago, while we're a little bit better. We'll need a lot to go right, but I really do feel like the gap has closed enough that I will be disappointed if we don't make them at least sweat it out a bit. And ultimately, I like our quarterback more than theirs. Garrett Greene has consistently displayed the stones to make winning plays in tight games. Drew Allar has not. Maybe that changes this year, but IF it’s a close game in the 4th quarter, I know who I’m backing to get the job done. Let’s staple an L to these MF’s and send em back across the Mason-Dixon.
